Myers Depot Metal Detectors

ENDED Bring On Summer!

AAAAAGGGHHH!

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Groundhog Day!

R5
 
Week 23

13 47 69 m13
26 34 43 m13
17 42 64 m13
2 15 67 m13


Bounty hunter - treasure hunter - cabelas
Best find to date - 15g platinum ring
 
Looks like no winner again...I took a quick look at all of the guess for the week, and I don’t think anyone even hit the right combination if you combined the numbers across all four guesses! I know you can’t argue with math, but I’m beginning to think the 1 in 606 chance is even more difficult than it seems.

In fact, the more I think about it, the odds are longer than that...the 1 in 606 odds of matching 3 numbers is based on selecting 5 numbers like you would if you bought a lotto ticket. Since we’re only selecting 3 numbers, our odds of matching 3 numbers are drastically reduced. I’m no statistician, so I have no idea how to calculate the actual odds. And, of course, i’m discounting the Megaball in all this based on the assumption that someone makes enough posts to make the megaball irrelevant...otherwise the odds increase even more drastically!

We’ve only got 30 or so guys participating each week...assuming 4 unique guesses each, we’re only covering about 120 combinations each week. We’re in for a long haul!! :shock:
 
Honestly I doubt anyone will ever win this


Bounty hunter - treasure hunter - cabelas
Best find to date - 15g platinum ring
 
AirmetTango said:
Looks like no winner again...I took a quick look at all of the guess for the week, and I don’t think anyone even hit the right combination if you combined the numbers across all four guesses! I know you can’t argue with math, but I’m beginning to think the 1 in 606 chance is even more difficult than it seems.

In fact, the more I think about it, the odds are longer than that...the 1 in 606 odds of matching 3 numbers is based on selecting 5 numbers like you would if you bought a lotto ticket. Since we’re only selecting 3 numbers, our odds of matching 3 numbers are drastically reduced. I’m no statistician, so I have no idea how to calculate the actual odds. And, of course, i’m discounting the Megaball in all this based on the assumption that someone makes enough posts to make the megaball irrelevant...otherwise the odds increase even more drastically!

We’ve only got 30 or so guys participating each week...assuming 4 unique guesses each, we’re only covering about 120 combinations each week. We’re in for a long haul!! :shock:
Click to expand...



It would still be 1:606, since it doesn't matter WHICH of the five numbers picked match...

In my case, this week I was only three numbers off :) I think that I only matched two numbers one week (but I'd have to check that to make sure)
 
pryan67 said:
It would still be 1:606, since it doesn't matter WHICH of the five numbers picked match...
Click to expand...

I’m pretty sure the probability goes down, and pretty significantly...when you pick for a lotto ticket, it’s easier to match 3 numbers because you have 5 numbers in the pool as potential matches, which ultimately calculates out to the 1 in 606 chance. With only 3 numbers in a guess, the chances go down. The extreme example of what I’m trying to point out is that if someone were allowed to pick 70 numbers in each guess, obviously they would be guaranteed a match. But no need to go to that extreme - surely you can see if you were allowed to put 10 numbers in per guess, it would be easier to match 3....see what I mean?
 
I will work out the odds for is.

BCD


AirmetTango said:
Looks like no winner again...I took a quick look at all of the guess for the week, and I don’t think anyone even hit the right combination if you combined the numbers across all four guesses! I know you can’t argue with math, but I’m beginning to think the 1 in 606 chance is even more difficult than it seems.

In fact, the more I think about it, the odds are longer than that...the 1 in 606 odds of matching 3 numbers is based on selecting 5 numbers like you would if you bought a lotto ticket. Since we’re only selecting 3 numbers, our odds of matching 3 numbers are drastically reduced. I’m no statistician, so I have no idea how to calculate the actual odds. And, of course, i’m discounting the Megaball in all this based on the assumption that someone makes enough posts to make the megaball irrelevant...otherwise the odds increase even more drastically!

We’ve only got 30 or so guys participating each week...assuming 4 unique guesses each, we’re only covering about 120 combinations each week. We’re in for a long haul!! :shock:
Click to expand...
 
AirmetTango said:
I’m pretty sure the probability goes down, and pretty significantly...when you pick for a lotto ticket, it’s easier to match 3 numbers because you have 5 numbers in the pool as potential matches, which ultimately calculates out to the 1 in 606 chance. With only 3 numbers in a guess, the chances go down. The extreme example of what I’m trying to point out is that if someone were allowed to pick 70 numbers in each guess, obviously they would be guaranteed a match. But no need to go to that extreme - surely you can see if you were allowed to put 10 numbers in per guess, it would be easier to match 3....see what I mean?
Click to expand...

Ah...got it...I think you're right...BCD said he'll work out the odds...so I won't bother :)

I did one better...had a friend of mine (the author of a book on statistics, and a brilliant engineer) work them out for me.


here's what he said

How many ways can you draw three numbers from 70?

N = 70! / (70-3)!/3! = 54,740

How many valid three number combinations can a set of five numbers contain?

M = 5! / (5-3)! / 3! = 10

(If the five numbers were 1-2-3-4-5, valid combinations would be: 5-4-3, 5-4-2, 5-4-1, 5-3-2, 5-3-1, 5-2-1, 4-3-2, 4-3-1, 4-2-1, 3-2-1)

So the odds of drawing one of the 10 sets of valid triplets from 54,740 is:

1:5,474.




So yeah...we may be in this a LONG time :)


He'll verify the numbers when he gets home from a bear hunt, but I think he's right.


this week I was only 3 numbers off LOL
 
I'll trust your friends math. Don't forget that we get 4 guesses. Divide that by 4 and we're at 1300 to 1. Still a ways to go.

BCD



pryan67 said:
Ah...got it...I think you're right...BCD said he'll work out the odds...so I won't bother :)

I did one better...had a friend of mine (the author of a book on statistics, and a brilliant engineer) work them out for me.


here's what he said

How many ways can you draw three numbers from 70?

N = 70! / (70-3)!/3! = 54,740

How many valid three number combinations can a set of five numbers contain?

M = 5! / (5-3)! / 3! = 10

(If the five numbers were 1-2-3-4-5, valid combinations would be: 5-4-3, 5-4-2, 5-4-1, 5-3-2, 5-3-1, 5-2-1, 4-3-2, 4-3-1, 4-2-1, 3-2-1)

So the odds of drawing one of the 10 sets of valid triplets from 54,740 is:

1:5,474.




So yeah...we may be in this a LONG time :)


He'll verify the numbers when he gets home from a bear hunt, but I think he's right.


this week I was only 3 numbers off LOL
Click to expand...
 
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